I have been meaning to comment for some time on Joel Kotkin’s article "American Cities of Aspiration". Kotkin creates a clever false dichotomy between the decadent "Euro-American" cities of Blue State America and the fast-growing "aspirational" cities found primarily in – you guessed it – Bush-friendly Red State America.
Right now the demographic, economic, and political momentum belongs
to the aspirational cities, places like Reno, Boise, Orlando, Phoenix,
Las Vegas, and Salt Lake City. They attract the most new migrants from
other parts of the country, and an increasing number of immigrants from
abroad. They have experienced some of the nation’s sharpest increases in their numbers of new families.Over the next quarter century, these areas are also projected to
experience the nation’s largest increases in the construction of new
homes and industrial and commercial buildings. Equally important, much
of the new growth they are enjoying is in those businesses–software
development, medical manufacturing, high-end business services, to name
a few–that increasingly define America’s economic power. Meanwhile
these same industries are a declining presence in such cities as
Boston, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley.
What Kotkin hates about the "Euro-American" cities is their apparent embrace of European values.
Today the embrace of European values and perspectives also reflects
profound economic and social similarities between Euro-America and the
continent. Like many of their European counterparts, many, if not most,
major American urban centers are at best demographically stagnant or
even losing population, which is also the case in Paris, Milan, Rome,
and Amsterdam. Indeed, since 2000 San Francisco, Boston, Minneapolis,
Chicago, and Philadelphia have all lost population, while growth rates
have dropped precipitously in many other cities.
This analysis is in equal measure provocative and preposterous. It is true that the unregulated sprawling cities like Phoenix have seen tremendous growth – but at what price? Abundant land and cheap gas have created unsustainable communities that will collapse as energy becomes scarce. Moreover, as educated families move to cheaper (aspirational) areas, they tend to recreate the "Euro-American" environments they left behind. While Kotkin is correct that Boston has lost population, a number of the professionals moved to southern New Hampshire, where they stated demanding good schools and social services – turning a Red State into a Blue State (NH went narrowly for John Kerry).
What Kotkin fails to realize in his article is the transformation of the global economy from one based on manufacturing to an economy base on knowledge. It is precisely the "Euro-American" cities, with their premier institutions of higher learning churning out highly skilled knowledge workers, that will benefit from this shift. That is why the the largest percentage of venture capital investment is concentrated in Silicon Valley and New England – two regions Kotkin despises. These are centers of innovation – fueled by universities. It is true that these regions try to minimize sprawl and don’t have the same number of big box stores, firing ranges, and pentacostal churches. This preference for controlled growth is interpreted by Kotkin as being "hostile to business". But if commitment to vibrant cutural institutions along with attractive architecture and preservation of the environment is "European", then count me in as a proud "Euro-American."
