I wrote recently about the mixed legacy of Ostpolitik – the West German foreign policy towards the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s. Now the SPD wants to repeat the Ostpolitik with Vladimir Putin's Russia – a mistake, in my opinion. Today in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Reinhard Veser has some excellent commentary on this issue: Falsche Russland-Politik:
Der wesentliche Unterschied zwischen der späten Sowjetunion und Putins Regime ist, dass dieses nicht eine Einflusssphäre zu erhalten, sondern zurückzuerobern versucht. Revanchismus, nicht Stabilität ist heute das Programm des Kremls. In einem friedlichen Wettlauf mit dem Westen aber ist Russland heute so hoffnungslos unterlegen wie damals die Sowjetunion – sowohl was die Attraktivität seines politischen Systems als auch was seine Wirtschaftskraft betrifft. Diesen Nachteil will Putin kompensieren, indem er seine Gegner im Inneren zu schwächen versucht, aggressiver auftritt und größere Gewalt- und Risikobereitschaft als der Westen zeigt. Die Kriege in der Ukraine und in Syrien, der Fall des angeblich in Deutschland vergewaltigten russischen Mädchens Lisa Anfang des Jahres und der regelmäßige, mit drohendem Unterton vorgebrachte Verweis auf das russischen Atomwaffenarsenal wie dieser Tage bei der Stationierung der Iskander-Raketen im alten Königsberger Gebiet sind Ausdruck dieser Politik.
("The basic difference between the late Soviet Union and Putin's regime is that Putin is not just seeking to preserve Russia's sphere of influence but rather is attempting to re-capture what was lost. Revanchism, not stability, is the Kremlin's strategy today. But like the Soviet Union back then, Russia today is hopelessly disadvantaged in trying to compete peacefully with the west – with respect to the appeal of its political systems as well as in its economic power. Putin is trying to compensate for this disadvantage by seeking to weaken his opponents internally, and presenting a more aggressive stance and much more willing to take risks – also use violent force – than the west is willing to stomach. The wars in the Ukraine and Syria, the phony case of the Russian girl Lisa who was supposedly raped in Germany, and the constant undertones of threats pointing to Russia's arsenal of nuclear weapons – the stationing of Iskander rockets in the former territory of Königsberg are all expressions of this policy.)
The idea of Wandel durch Annäherung ("change through rapprochement”) with Putin's regime while it continues to commit grave war crimes in Syria, while it continues its low-grade war in eastern Ukraine, while it laughs at the investigation that presented overwhelming evidence that it was culpable for downing a civilian airliner is completely absurd. Putin rightly has nothing but contempt for this display of weakness by Steinmeier, Gabriel und Co. even as he happily plays along.
