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The German Social Democrats (SPD) were clearly the big losers in today's election. A number of their traditional supporters either went over to DIE LINKE – the Left Party – or simply stayed home. The turnout was surprisingly low in what was supposed to be a close election. After today, the SPD can barely be called a Volkspartei, so where does it go from here? The analysis and recriminations will begin tomorrow.
Die Zeit reports the hard truth for the party of Willy Brandt:
Dabei ist das Wahlergebnis der SPD in Wirklichkeit mehr als nur eine
Niederlage, die die Partei nach elf Regierungsjahren wieder auf die
harten Oppositionsbänke führt. Das Ergebnis ist ein Desaster, eine
Katastrophe. Es stürzt die SPD in eine existentielle Krise. Die
negativen Superlative lassen sich beliebig aneinanderreihen. Noch nie
seit Gründung der Bundesrepublik hat die SPD bei einer Bundestagswahl
so schlecht abgeschnitten, noch nie ist eine Regierungspartei von den
Wählern so brutal gestraft worden, noch nie hat eine Partei bei einer
Bundestagswahl so viele Prozentpunkte verloren. (The election results for the SPD are in reality much worse than simply a loss that for the first time in 11 years puts them in the opposition camp. The result is a disaster, a catastrophe. The SPD has plunged into an existential crisis. The negative superlatives pile up. Never in the history of the Federal Republic has the SPD performed so poorly in a national election, never has a governing party been so severely punished by the voters, never has a party lost such a large percentage of its support in a national election.)
Niederlage, die die Partei nach elf Regierungsjahren wieder auf die
harten Oppositionsbänke führt. Das Ergebnis ist ein Desaster, eine
Katastrophe. Es stürzt die SPD in eine existentielle Krise. Die
negativen Superlative lassen sich beliebig aneinanderreihen. Noch nie
seit Gründung der Bundesrepublik hat die SPD bei einer Bundestagswahl
so schlecht abgeschnitten, noch nie ist eine Regierungspartei von den
Wählern so brutal gestraft worden, noch nie hat eine Partei bei einer
Bundestagswahl so viele Prozentpunkte verloren. (The election results for the SPD are in reality much worse than simply a loss that for the first time in 11 years puts them in the opposition camp. The result is a disaster, a catastrophe. The SPD has plunged into an existential crisis. The negative superlatives pile up. Never in the history of the Federal Republic has the SPD performed so poorly in a national election, never has a governing party been so severely punished by the voters, never has a party lost such a large percentage of its support in a national election.)
It was announced that Steinmeier will lead the SPD as opposition in the Bundestag. In Japan, politicians who bring shame on their party apologize publicly and resign – or commit hara-kiri.
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The SPD will need to do some soul-searching. After this election, they are in danger of being eclipsed by Die Linke, who scored 6.5%+ in every western state and 20%+ in every eastern state.
All the SPD had to offer Germany was 4 more years of grand coalition. How did it expect to motivate voters that way? The 1998 election, by contrast, was an election where the voters involved probably felt they were making history. This one felt like deja vu.
The SPD has 4 years to figure out an electoral strategy involving a coalition of the 3 left-wing parties. Perhaps Saarland offers a place to start.
To actually rebuild the SPD and get back voters from Die Linke, the SPD should try to cooperate with Die Linke and appear to make reasonable compromises, while hoping that Die Linke’s internal divisions undo its progress and its base returns en masse to the SPD.
The strong FDP result has the wiff of right-wingers voting strategically. Doubtless it also indicates an authentic frustration with the Grand Coalition. So it seems doubtful that the SPD can come back as a partner for the CDU or FDP, unless it is content to be a minor party on the way to being an historical relic.