"Freedom is on the march" is a favorite phrase of President Bush as he surveys the damage done by the US invasion of Iraq. In his recent State of the Union Address he boasted of the elections taking place in Iraq and throughout the Middle East as proof that democracy is taking root:
Far from being a hopeless dream, the advance of freedom is the great story of our time. In 1945, there were about two dozen lonely democracies in the world. Today, there are 122. And we’re writing a new chapter in the story of self-government — with women lining up to vote in Afghanistan, and millions of Iraqis marking their liberty with purple ink, and men and women from Lebanon to Egypt debating the rights of individuals and the necessity of freedom. At the start of 2006, more than half the people of our world live in democratic nations. And we do not forget the other half — in places like Syria and Burma, Zimbabwe, North Korea, and Iran — because the demands of justice, and the peace of this world, require their freedom, as well.
The outcome of the elections in Iraq is, at best, unclear: the voting took place along narrow sectarian lines, and it appears that a theocratic Shiite-controlled government will be assuming power. The results in the recent Palastinian election also give pause, as Hamas won with a clear electoral majority. The German-British political scientist – Sir Ralf Dahrendorf – has a piece in Die Welt today where he argues that the elections in Iraq and the Palestinian territories are – are best – only a small, uncertain step on a path to democracy. The entire piece may be read in English here:
First, elections rarely solve fundamental problems. In particular, they do not create a liberal order.
To be effective, elections must be preceded by a period of debate and argument. Cases have to be made and attacked or defended.
First elections, in particular, are almost inevitably of limited value as foundations of de- mocracy, because they take place in an emotionally charged atmosphere largely without substantive debate.
They are an invitation to assert who one is and where one belongs rather than to a competition of well-defined and comprehensive political programmes. This means, secondly, that first elections, and perhaps elections more generally, are not themselves a sufficient guarantee of liberty.
As the German constitutional court judge Ernst-Wolfgang Böckenförde put it, "democracies cannot create the conditions of their survival and success". What are these conditions, and who creates them? The answer to the first question is, the rule of law.
{…}democracy is a long-term task. Some say it is achieved only once a country has passed the "two- turnover test", that is, two changes of Government without violence.
I don’t see Iraq, the Palestinians, or Egypt passing the "two-turnover test" anytime in the next decade. Of course, with the US and Israel "colluding to undermine Hamas" (Jimmy Carter in today’s Washington Post), the prospect that democracy would take hold in the Palestinian territories looks very remote indeed.
Hamas Middle East Israel Demokratie
