Russian hackers were VERY effective in disrupting the US November 2016 presidential election. Putin had a very clear target in the US: he hated Hillary Clinton and realized early on that he could manipulate Donald Trump. So the Kremlin mobilized a network of "amplifiers" – both Bot and human – to spread Fake News that vilified Clinton and advanced Trump – with collusion of the Fox News Network and the Trump Campaign.
In France, too, Putin had a favorite candidate: the neo-fascist Marine LePen. But Emmanuel Macron and En Marche were able to effectively counteract Russian hacking and disinformation.
In Germany the situation is more complicated. First, there is a large population of Russlanddeutsche-Russian-speaking German citizens – who are susceptible to propaganda coming from the Kremlin. Second, Putin enjoys a large Fifth Column in Germany, including two political parties – the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left Party (die LINKE) – that are pro-Moscow and anti-West. The Digital Forensic Research Lab at the Atlantic Council recently reported on how the Kremlin's "amplifiers" in German social media have been spreading anti-immigrant, anti-Semitic and anti-American Fake News issued through Putin's two main German propaganda outlets – RT Deutsch and Sputnik:
Two Twitter communities appear to amplify the Kremlin’s outlets in Germany most actively: supporters of the Russian government and its allies, and supporters of far-right and anti-migrant forces, especially the AfD.However, there is significant cross-over and ideological alignment between these communities. Primarily pro-Kremlin accounts also amplify anti-migrant messages; anti-migrant accounts also amplify the Kremlin’s geopolitical messages.
Of course politicians on the Right – like Frauke Petry – and on the Left – like Sahra Wagenknecht and her husband Oskar – are frequent and welcome guests on RT Deutsch an deliver the pro-Moscow, anti-NATO/anti-West message in an attempt to undermine and delegitimize the democratic process in Germany.
The Kremlin sees the Russlanddeutsche as critical for achieving its objectives in Germany, and is attempting to mobilize this population through a small splitter party – Die Einheit and other pro-Russian or Kremlin-financed organizations:
Der auf die Russlanddeutschen ausgerichtete Wahlkampf beschränkt sich freilich nicht auf die Aktivitäten der Partei Die Einheit. In gleicher Stossrichtung arbeitet ein sogenannter Internationaler Konvent der Russlanddeutschen unter Vorsitz von Heinrich Groth. Auch die einflussreiche Moskauer Stiftung Russki Mir wirkt aktiv auf die russischsprachigen Deutschen ein. Ausserdem sind sie die Zielgruppe einer Reihe propagandistischer Projekte wie der Websites «Russkoje polje» (Russisches Feld), «Golos Germanii» (Stimme Deutschlands) oder der Youtube-Kanal «Govorit Germanija» (Hier spricht Deutschland). Von den Kanälen des russischen Staatsfernsehens ganz zu schweigen, die laut Umfragen von der Mehrheit der russischsprachigen Bevölkerung in Deutschland regelmässig gesehen werden. Diese stacheln aktiv zu Fremdenfeindlichkeit auf, versuchen die deutschen Regierungsparteien zu diskreditieren und unterstützen die extremen Rechten.
It should also be pointed out that many ne0-Nazi groups in Germany have been banned from Facebook, but have found a new social media home on the Putin-backed VKontakte, from which they can organize their attacks on migrants and other foreigners.
As recently as January 2017 the Kremlin believed there was a chance to prevent Angela Merkel's reelcction:
Der Soziologe behauptet sogar, dass Russlands wichtigstes Ziel es sei, Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel zu stürzen. Erfolgen soll das mit Halbwahrheiten, provozierenden Gerüchten und falschen Dokumenten. Damit wolle Putin die Situation in Deutschland destabilisieren und Unsicherheit schüren.
Now, in July, Merkel's victory seems all but assured. The best the Kremlin can hope for is maximizing the vote for the AfD (appears unlikely at this time) or simply to optimize distrust of the mainstream media and democratic institutions among the German population – partcularly in the eastern states.
