The Danish Kingmakers

I have to confess that I knew next to nothing about about the South-Schleswig Voters Association (Südschleswigscher Wählerverband – SSW), but this tiny group has managed to save the Red-Green Coalition in Schleswig-Holstein.  On the SSW Web site  I learn that they represent the Danish minority in the region, and that their mission is to bring a "Scandinavian perspective" to the political direction of the state.

Der SSW orientiert seine Politik eng an der
gesellschaftlichen und politischen Entwicklung in Skandinavien. So
bringen wir wichtige neue Impulse in die Politik in Schleswig-Holstein
ein – beispielsweise in der Arbeitsmarkt-, Sozial- und Bildungspolitik.

The SSW also has a special status in German politics in that the 5% hurdle does not apply to them.  The Guardian has explained this nicely.

It takes the form of
the South-Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW), created by the British
military authorities in 1948 to represent ethnic Danes after Schleswig
was divided between Germany and Denmark after plebiscites in 1920.

The
SSW, dedicated to maintaining "the peculiarity of Danish life", is
hardly a major political force. Speaking for the 50,000 Danes and
40,000 Friesians among the state of 2.8 million people, it currently
holds three seats in Kiel’s Landtag (parliament).

What made the outcome so unsatisfactory on Sunday was the low voter turnout – less than 68%, so there is  no clear mandate for any coalition.  EU Pundit sees the SSW joining Red- Green as "catastrophic":

The
SSW is thus the kingmaker in Schleswig-Holstein in an election result
which in part determines the fortunes of the Schroeder administration,
a result to be determined by 50,000 Danes on the wrong side of the
border. Worse, the SSW traditionally holds to the left-wing parties, so
that they may swing their two votes to the losing incumbents, thus
negating the actual German vote, which would ordinarily demand a change
of government.

The vote is also catastrophic for the SSW.
If they cast their votes to the losers of the election, the "Danes"
have changed the political scene in Germany. This will only feed the
growing right-wing sentiment in Germany and in Schleswig-Holstein and
clearly and ultimately lead to the loss by the SSW of their special
privileges, once the left-wingers are out of office. On the other hand,
if the SSW respects the choice made by the German voters, they should
join the CDU-FDP coaltion, which however would go contrary to their
historical allegiance and contrary to their own voters. In our opinion,
the only way that the SSW could possibly save itself from ultimate
demise is to abstain from joining any coalition and letting the Germans
decide the matter for themselves, while of course exacting the
fulfillment of some political demands for remaining neutral.

He expects four more years of Red-Green rule in the north to contribute to the rise of the extreme right-wing parties.  But the good news from the results was that the neo-Nazi NPD achieved under 2% – far less than had been feared.  So maybe the situation is not as dire as he predicts.