Stoiber’s Scorched-Earth Tactics

Message to Edmund Stoiber: insulting a quarter of the voters in Germany is a risky campaign strategy. I must admit it has been fascinating to watch the CDU/CSU meltdown over the past few weeks as they appear to want to "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory".  First the CDU releases an election manifesto that calls for an increase in the VAT (Mehrwertsteuer); then Angela Merkel – the economics expert – confuses netto and brutto (net and gross income) in a policy speech.  The campaign to insult east German voters started with the Brandenburg interior minister’s stupid remarks about the apparent murder of nine infants by a disturbed woman in Frankfurt(Oder), and then these remarks by Edmund Stoiber (via Lautgeben.de):

“[…] es darf nicht sein, daß letztlich die Frustrierten über das Schicksal Deutschlands bestimmen. […] wir haben leider nicht überall so kluge Bevölkerungsteile wie in Bayern.” (Quelle: FAZ, 12.08.2005) (tansl. it shouldn’t happen that in the end the frustrated people (in the east) determine the fate of Germany. (…) Unfortunately not all the population groups in Germany are as smart as in Bavaria.)

The political blogs have certainly been energized by Stoiber’s comments: erphschwester suggest that maybe his real intention is to restore the Berlin Wall, while Denkpass points out that it was not the frustrated east, but rather the "smart" Bavaria that was the cradle of National Socialism.  Don Alphonso apologizes on behalf of Bavarians along the lines of the "Sorry Everybody" Web site. 

Stoiber is an intelligent man and an astute politician, so we have to ask the question: why is he pursuing such an apparently reckless campaign against east German voters?  Isn’t the chancellor (in this case, Angela Merkel) supposed to be the chancellor for all Germans?  So far there are three theories:

1. Energize the political base:  This worked well for the Republicans in the US: by attacking "Massachusetts liberals" and "Hollywood Intellectuals" (a true oxymoron), George W. Bush got the votes he needed in the rural red states and the south. Stoiber is tapping into the resentment that many Germans feel in the west towards their eastern cousins due in part to the billions of euros transferred each year in the form of subsidies.  Bashing Dresden and Leipzig plays well in Munich and Stuttgart. 
2. Sabotage Angela Merkel.  If the CDU fails in the September election, the party might well be open to a seasoned conservative leader and want Stoiber to take the reins again – so Joerg Olaf at lautgeben.de :" Und wer könnte die Karre aus dem Dreck ziehen, wenn Merkel scheitert? Nein, nicht sofort, nach ein paar Monaten realpolistischen Grabenkämpfen. Stoiber etwa?"
3. Revenge.  Stoiber blames the frustrated voters in the east for handing the election victory 3 years ago to Schröder.  If only voters in the west had been allowed to vote, Stoiber would have become chancellor. 

In any event, Stoiber’s remarks no doubt helped the fortunes of the Left Party (Linkspartei) and added to the uncertainty about the election outcome:

One poll last week showed the CDU/CSU and their prospective Free Democrat liberal coalition partners falling short of an overall majority. That could force them to share power in a "grand coalition" which economists doubt would be capable of pushing through reforms to create more jobs and boost growth.